Cascade Of Insights

Personal Site of Adam Gordon Bell - Software Engineer

Bitcoin Transactions

What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?

question

Simple Estimate (based on extrapolation of graph) :

  • Averaged over 90 days, the transaction volume is climbing consistently. Chart
  • But, it goes sideways or slightly down in periods of up to 6 months long, which could leave it below 125, so I will say 25% chance of below 125.
  • Going above 250 would represent 100k rise, which hasn’t happen in the past. 25%
  • The remaining probabilty is 50%.

Can we break it down further?

Other predictors

  • other predictors on gjp have a more extreme prediction around 10/75/15